[Bruce Frohnen 03/30 02:04 PM]Agreeing in general with Caleb's view that we must see politics as an arena in which we must take evil along with good, I'd like to point out the danger the Republican Party faces from a possible reversion to pre-Reagan alignments. The evangelical movement in politics is of very recent origin, and intimately tied with the social issues. Thus, the argument seems to be, so long as the party gives them the "right" position on social issues, they are and will remain Republican. And that, the argument goes, will be enough to forge and maintain a ruling coalition for decades to come.
What this overlooks is the fact that Reagan Democrats — currently mostly Republican — were a big part of this coalition, and were by and large middle and lower-middle class ethnic/relgious (Catholic) voters, brought over by decreasing economic opportunity as well as the social issues. And these voters may soon revert, even as many evangelicals retreat. The mainstream may be happy with the way things are going in our culture these days, but an awful lot of religious parents are not. Why else would the poll numbers look so dismal? People are worried about their kids — what opportunities they will have to "get ahead" — but also about what opportunities they will have to lead decent, settled lives. And, however much people may like Big Box America, it ain't good for the kids; and an increasing number of Americans know this, though they have little clue what to do about it.
For too long the Republican Party has been dependent on the Democratic establishment's status as hostages to the abortion lobby for its victories.
If that cracks, as it may well, issues like war in the Middle East, increases in government spending on confusing entitlements of limited value (prescription drugs) and the whole host of issues brought out by Bruce Bartlett in his recent book — whether we want to argue with his specifics or not — will create enough of a perception of Republicans as "for the rich guy" that there will be a series of big, big losses. This is highly unfortunate as it will bring in ever more centralization of power — more socialism, to be frank.
The vast majority of Americans are not libertarians. They fear government (as they should), but they also fear social anarchy. They like freedom, thank goodness, but demand order. So, whatever one may think is smart and savvy, it's small town values — integrity, thrift, industry, but also faith, stability, and safety — that sell in the bulk of the country. And this is where Rod's very cultural book has explicitly political salience. It makes a case for appealing to people who may well head left if we don't give them a reason to stay right.
I'll save my argument on why this is so, and is important, for a later post.
In the meantime, do please feel free to call me nuts.
